A look at ‘08 continued…

The Long Shot Dems.

Three candidates for the Democratic nomination, are lesser known, but mostly against Globalization/Free Trade. They are Iowa Governor, Tom Vilsack; Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; and Indiana Senator, Evan Bayh.

Late last week, Tom Vilsack, the governor of Iowa formally launched his candidacy for the Democratic Party’s nomination for President. As a governor Vilsack has a limited trail about Globalization, yet he has come out in strong favor of writing new rules for the Global Economy. He believes that the rise of global markets has undermined the ability of national governments to control their own economies, and argues that the answer is neither global laissez faire nor protectionism but his “Third Way”: New international rules and institutions to ensure that globalization goes hand in hand with higher living standards, basic worker rights, and environmental protection. U.S. leadership is crucial in building a rules-based global trading system as well as international structures that enhance worker rights and the environment without killing trade. For example, instead of restricting trade, he argues that we should negotiate specific multilateral accords to deal with specific environmental threats. This is similar to the view that my expert study took and could aid in Vilsack’s campaign. New ideas in a political deceive debate are always good. However, I don’t think Vilsack’s campaign will be able to steer the nation towards the globalization issue, that is to say, I don’t think it will be a main polarizing issue in 2008. Vilsack does have an advantage in that he is the governor of the state with the first primary, but this year, in returning most of their Republican delegation to the US House, Iowans showed a lack of caring about Globalization. Iowans care more about soy beans and moralistic issues such as Abortion then the economy, so it should be interesting to see how Vilsack fairs in his own state come 2008.

Joe Biden, senator from Delaware is currently the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and is slated to chair that committee when the Senate comes back next year, with Democrats in the majority. Biden who ran for president briefly in 1988, has been considering a 2008 bid quite vigorously. Biden is defiantly the anti-Globalization candidate of the lesser known Democrats.

Voted NO on the free trade agreement with Oman.

Voted NO on implementing CAFTA for Central America free-trade.

Voted NO on establishing free trade between US & Singapore.

Voted NO on establishing free trade between the US and Chile.

Biden’s vote history is clear; however he often uses rhetoric which shows some favoritism to globalization. This has lead to a 42% rating by the CATO Institute on Globalization, indicating a mixed record on trade issues.

Biden is obviously against Free Trade, his votes mark a clear path and he will not easily get past them. I think Biden is in the race, running for the VP spot, or even the Secretary of State position should the Democratic nominee win in 2008. Look for him to drop out of the presidential race by January of 2008, and through his support behind one of the top challengers. Should that person win the nomination, Biden will be in a good spot for either the VP part of the ticket or a cabinet position.

Evan Bayh who has served as a Senator from Indiana since 1999 and is a former Governor of Indiana is a potential Democratic candidate for the 2008 presidential nomination, and rounds out our list of lesser known Democratic candidates. He has a much less desisive voting record then Senator Biden.

Voted NO on free trade agreement with Oman.

Voted NO on implementing CAFTA for Central America free-trade.

Voted YES on establishing free trade between US & Singapore.

Voted YES on establishing free trade between the US and Chile.

Voted YES on extending free trade to Andean nations.

Bayh benefited greatly by the withdrawal of Mark Warner from the race last month, but will need to increase his recognition outside of Indiana. It is interesting that he isn’t as against Globalization as other potential nominees; especially where he is from a state which has lost many manufacturing jobs over the last decade.

All of the three above candidates have a long road to the nomination, but one thing is clear, there are no big time Free Trade/Globalization fans amongst them.

References: United States-Oman Free Trade Agreement; Bill S. 3569 ; vote number 2006-190 on Jun 29, 2006, Central America Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act; Bill HR 3045 ; vote number 2005-209 on Jul 28, 2005, US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act; Bill S.1417/HR 2739 ; vote number 2003-318 on Jul 31, 2003, US-Chile Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act; Bill S.1416/HR 2738 ; vote number 2003-319 on Jul 31, 2003.